6Pound8OunceBabyJoba: ALDS Debate

As you may have heard, the team with the American League’s best record at season end has the privilege of choosing the format of their ALDS series, a 7 day series or an 8 day series.

In an 8 day series, we would only have to start 3 pitchers (assuming we played all 5 games). Those pitchers would presumably be CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, and AJ Burnett. CC would get the ball in game one, Andy in game two (AJ hasn’t earned that spot), then AJ would get the ball in game three. CC and Andy would pitch in the next two games. Now, you might say that that would be the best situation. A second start by Andy is better than having a Joba start judging by their recent performance. The problem with the 8 day series is that while we only have to start 3 pitchers, our opponent also only needs three pitchers.

Our opponent right now looks like it will be Detroit, unless Texas overtakes Boston for the wildcard, in which case we’d face the Rangers. The Tigers would presumably send Justin Verlander to the mound in game 1, followed by Edwin Jackson, and then Jarrod Washburn in an 8 day series. If it was a 7 day series though, the Tigers would throw in Rick Porcello while we’d send out our Lord the Savior, Joba Chamberlain.

Verlander has been dominant this year with a 3.34 ERA, and in September his ERA is a mere 3.00. In either format we’d have to face him, so his stats aren’t extremely relevant to the choice. The main key is whether the Yanks would like a Edwin Jackson v. Andy Pettitte matchup in game 5, or a Joba Chamberlain v. Rick Porcello matchup.

Jackson has been phenomenal this year with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. However, in September his ERA is 5.40. He’s already pitched 7 innings more than he did all of last year, and perhaps he’ll experience fatigue as the postseason rolls around. Right now, he’s not the dominating force he was on the mound most of the year, but he’s definitely got the ability to get opposing hitters out. Andy Pettitte has pitched well this year, but in his last two starts he’s allowed seven earned runs over eleven innings. Andy’s got postseason experience though, which could give the team a sense of courage and stability in a crucial game.

Joba has been limited by the new Joba Rules recently, not having a gone 6 innings since August 11th. Porcello, Detroit’s star rookie, meanwhile has been dominant of late with a 3.79 ERA in the past 30 days. I love Joba, but the last thing we want is a starter who could blow up early on in a big game. Joba is either great or he’s bad, and we can’t take that risk in a big playoff game.

Start Andy. He’ll be his typical self, allowing 3 runs over 6 or 7 innings. That’s nearly a guarantee. If he goes seven innings then Hughsie, Mo, series over. We can’t take the risk of throwing out Joba, as big of a savior as he is. In the playoffs, consistency is more valuable than a chance at dominance. Plus, I’d rather face Jackson right now than Porcello, although that could certainly change. If the Rangers win the Wildcard, I’ll put up a new analysis, but for right now, expect Joe Girardi to plan on giving Dandy Andy the ball if a game 5 comes up. To do that, he’d have to pick the 8 game series, which I’m sure he will.

*This post was written by Kevin Seefried of 6Pound8OunceBabyJoba*

6Pound8OunceBabyJoba: Offseason Thoughts

Okay, so I know we’re only 6 games up, and we should be focusing on the pennant race, and all the games and whatnot, but I have to take a moment to think about this upcoming off-season.

There are 7 Yankees eligible for free agency after this season: , Johnny Damon (Type A), Hideki Matsui(Type B), Andy Pettitte (Type B), Jerry Hairston Jr (Type B), Xavier Nady(Type B), Jose Molina, and Eric Hinske.
If all of them walk, and the Yanks make no acquistions, the 2010 lineup and rotation would be as follows:

SS Jeter

DH Swisher

1B Teixeira

3B Rodriguez

C Posada

2B Cano

LF Gardner

CF Austin Jackson

RF Melky Cabrera

CC Sabathia

AJ Burnett

Joba Chamberlain

Phil Hughes

Chien-Ming Wang

As you can see, the lineup has a rather inexperienced and light hitting outfield while the rotation has major question marks with Hughes and Wang. So…Here’s my strategy

Offer Arbitration to Pettitte and Hairston. If they accept, Pettitte can be an option in the rotation, and Hairston can continue his superutility role. If they decline, the Yanks get a compensation round pick for both Pettitte and Hairston. If Hairston declines, the Yanks should still try to sign him, he’s a great asset for the team. Matsui and Nady would both likely accept arbitration, and the Yanks can’t afford to have two DH-type players on the roster, not with Jeter, A-Rod, and Posada all getting older. I would not offer arbitration to Damon because he would likely accept. In arb. he could probably get his salary boosted from $13mm to $14 or 15mm. If the Yanks wait to sign him as a free agent, he might settle for $7 or $8mm.

Call up Francisco Cervelli. Cervelli will take on Molina’s role as the backup catcher. The pitching staff loved him in his stint in the majors this year, much like they love pitching to Molina. Cervelli is a nice, cheap option to back up Jorge, and he hit as well as you could have expected him to in his time in the majors. He is only a backup, so he doesn’t have to be Josh Gibson or anything.

Call up Shelley Duncan. Hinske was great on the bench this year, but Duncan can be just as effective. .271/.370/.534 in triple A with 27 homers. Those numbers are worthy of an MLB roster spot.

Call up Austin Jackson. The center fielder of the future needs to make it to the Bronx this year. He might not be “ready” by April, but I’d be shocked if he isn’t manning center field by May 31st.

Decline Sergio Mitre’s 2010 Option: Okay, he had a good start yesterday. Doesn’t mean I want him on the team next year.

Offer Chien Ming Wang for Seth Smith: Look, the Rockies have Brad Hawpe, Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, Ryan Spilborghs, and Smith in the outfield. They can get rid of one of them, right? Hawpe, Fowler, and Gonzalez will likely make up their starting outfield, and Spilly can be a fine number 4. The Rox will have a rotation of Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Hammel, Jorge de la Rosa, and Jeff Francis. Francis is coming back from shoulder surgery and Cook has had problems with his shoulder as well. So their rotation needs some insurance. Okay, I know what you;re thinking, Wang’s had shoulder surgery too, but the Rox could still use him. Think about it, it’s more likely that 2 of 3 players recover from surgery than 2 of 2. Right? Add in that Wang is a groundball pitcher (exactly what is needed at Coors Field) and you have a good fit. A switch to the NL might be a nice change for the Wanger. He’ll get out of the eye of the NY press, he’ll be facing teams that are easier to beat, and Bob Apodaca has a habit of reviving the careers of aging veterans. Meanwhile, Smith gives the Yanks a big bat in left. And he’s a lefty. A lefty slugger in the New Yankee Stadium? Sounds good to me.

Offer contracts to Andy Pettitte, Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard (Type B), and Justin Duchscherer (Type B). The Yanks’ rotation after declining Mitre’s option and trading Wang leaves just CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Joba Chamberlain returning. That is, if Andy Pettitte doesn’t accept arbitration. If he does, then he’d be in there as well. The Yanks will try to move Phil Hughes back to the rotation as well. Don’t forget that Ian Kennedy will be back from his aneurysm trouble and George Kontos is another in-house option. That’s a lot of young arms to depend on though. Pettitte has easily earned himself a contract for next year. Bedard and Duchscherer are interesting options because although both are injury prone, they have both seen substantial success in the bigs. Sheets is my personal favorite. He missed this year due to injury as well, but God he can throw a baseball. Sheets, Bedard, and Duchscherer are all risky pick-ups, but I don’t see any of them making more than $10mm next year, and none of them are likely to sign for more than 2 years, and even that might be a stretch. The Yanks can flex a little financial muscle to take on a risky pitcher like that, because if they stay healthy the Yanks could end up with the best rotation in baseball. Imagine, if all are healthy, trotting out Sabathia, Burnett, Sheets, Joba, and Hughes.

Some might be outraged that I don’t have an Aroldis Chapman signing, or a Matt Holliday or Jason Bay signing. And I understand that. I’d obviously love to have Holliday or Chapman in pinstripes (not a big Bay fan, sorry), but I see my plan as a simpler way of getting another World Series caliber team out on the field next year. That team would, ideally, look like this….

Lineup

SS Derek Jeter

DH Nick Swisher

1B Mark Teixeira

3B Alex Rodriguez

LF Seth Smith

C Jorge Posada

2B Robinson Cano

RF Brett Gardner

CF Austin Jackson

Bench

OF Melky Cabrera

1B/OF Shelley Duncan

C Francisco Cervelli

UTIL Jerry Hairston Jr.

Rotation

LHP CC Sabathia

RHP AJ Burnett

RHP Ben Sheets

RHP Joba Chamberlain

RHP Phil Hughes

Bullpen

Mariano Rivera (CL)

Alf Aceves

David Robertson

Brian Bruney

Phil Coke (Lefty)

Damaso Marte (Lefty)

Mark Melancon

Also Available:

RHP Chad Gaudin

RHP Jon Albaladejo

RHP Anthony Claggett

RHP Ian Kennedy

RHP Edwar Ramirez

RHP George Kontos

LHP Zach Kroenke

LHP Michael Dunn

1B Juan Miranda

3B Yurendell de Caster

IF Ramiro Pena

That’s what my plan would be if I were Brian Cashman. Thoughts? Agree? Disagree? Let’s hear it in the comments

*This post was written by Kevin Seefried of 6Pound8OunceBabyJoba*